The political backdrop of the Gujarat carnage is not
insignificant given the cynical use of communal violence by political
parties of all hues in the past. Having assumed power in Gujarat in 1998
after winning by an overwhelming two-thirds majority, the BJP has since
been suffering defeat in local elections for reasons that need not be gone
into here.
In the panchayat, taluka and district
elections that took place in 2000, two-thirds of the areas were won by
Congress. That was the first major defeat BJP suffered after coming to
power. In the elections to six municipal corporations, to 25 district
panchayats and to the closer-to-the-ground taluka elections
held simultaneously in December 2000, the BJP lost heavily. It lost
control in almost all the district panchayats. It retained four of
the six municipalities but its two losses were in the most prestigious
municipalities of Ahmedabad and Rajkot, where the Sangh Parivar had
its strongest foothold. The BJP had held the Ahmedabad corporation for the
last 15 years and Rajkot for the last 25 years. The Congress party was the
biggest beneficiary of the BJP’s electoral reversals.
In September 2001, the BJP lost to the Congress in the
by-elections for two assembly seats that were held. Shortly after that
debacle, chief minister Keshubhai Patel was replaced by Narendra Modi in a
bid to arrest the party’s dwindling fortunes in a state that the Sangh
Parivar considers to be the ‘Laboratory of Hindutva’. However,
in by-elections held on February 24, 2002, for three assembly seats, all
of which were held previously by the BJP, it lost two of them by heavy
margins to the Congress. Modi was elected from Rajkot, the third
constituency, but by a much-reduced margin as compared to the previous
poll.
Given the continuous downslide of the BJP in the state
since ’98, the question has been raised by many as to whether there were
any electoral-political calculations and machinations behind what
subsequently happened in the state from February 28 onwards. While this
remains in the realm of speculation, the fact is that the Modi government
prematurely dissolved the state assembly and pushed very hard for early
elections even though the situation in the state was far from normal. For
this he was widely criticised and the BJP was charged for trying to cash
in on the carnage. The impression certainly gained ground that with the
BJP consistently losing at the grass-root level and with assembly
elections in the offing, Modi cynically tried to use the politics of
division and violence to gain a fresh mandate from the people. That his
plan was frustrated because of the assessment of the Chief Election
Commissioner, JM Lyngdoh that in the prevailing circumstances, a free and
fair poll was not possible in Gujarat reaffirms the common citizens’ faith
in constitutionalism and the rule of law.